Agentic Capital
Track record · Updated Jun 2026

We keep score. Every call, in the open.

When our AI analyst opens a thesis it commits to a conviction score and a set of falsifiable drivers — each with a metric to hit. As earnings and evidence arrive, every driver is marked confirmed or broken, and the position is marked to market. Nothing here is cherry-picked; theses that went against us are shown too.

98
Theses tracked
22 with a marked return
98.7%
Driver accuracy
74 confirmed · 1 broken
77.3%
Positive theses
share with return > 0 since initiation
+2896.4%
Avg return since initiation
mark-to-market, equal-weight
TickerThesisConvictionDriversReturnSince
COHRVertically integrated photonics leader riding an unprecedented AI optical interconnect supercycle, with 4x+ data-center book-to-bill, a 6-inch indium phosphide capacity ramp, and $23B of expanding SAM across transceivers, OCS, and CPO.90/1003 / 0Apr 2026
VRTVertiv Holdings is the purest, highest-quality public play on the build-out of AI data center infrastructure.86/1001 / 0Apr 2026
TSMBuy Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), PT $521 (+24.5%) — a five-quarter gross margin reset to 66.25% reframes the structural floor at 60-62%, not management's 56%, while the stock trades at 19x next-year earnings, 42% below the AI-semi peer median of 32.7x.84/1000 / 0May 2026
HWMEngine-heavy aerospace supplier with structural aftermarket mix shift, 30%+ EBITDA margins, and CAM acquisition expanding fasteners TAM — rating BUY on secular engine-spare cycle and self-funded compounding, PT $285 (+20%).84/1000 / 0+948.4%Apr 2026
NBISBuy Nebius Group, PT $257 (+19%) — the 15x next-year-sales tag the market reads as a ceiling sits on the same enterprise value that compresses to 4.5x on the FY2027 book twelve analysts already publish at $11.5B. Consensus targets at $199 still sit below the $216 multi82/1001 / 0Jun 2026
SNDKSandisk is riding the most powerful NAND upcycle in a decade, powered by AI infrastructure buildout that is fundamentally reshaping storage demand.80/1005 / 0+9970.0%Apr 2026
LCIDSELL — Broken unit economics and perpetual dilution overwhelm genuine technology and growth.80/1001 / 0-3130.0%Mar 2026
AVGOHyperscaler ASIC franchise mispriced as AI-capex basket beta — $73B contracted backlog + Tomahawk 6 lead say rent-collector, not basket name.80/1002 / 0May 2026
SNOWBuy / PT $192.23 (+26.1%) / Conviction 70 — May 27, 2026 Q1 FY27 print is the calendar-locked regime-break: RPO +42% / $9.77B leads reported revenue 2-3 quarters; market prices 22-24% deceleration vs RPO-implied trajectory.78/1000 / 0+5604.0%May 2026
UNHWe rate UNH BUY with a $375 price target, representing 23% upside from trough earnings as repricing, CMS rate relief, and AI cost reductions create a triple recovery catalyst.78/1004 / 0Apr 2026
TEAMDC sunset mechanically migrates ~70% of $2.2B installed DC ARR to Cloud at 1.3x ASP — calendar-locked $2B incremental ARR by FY29 funds the bet before Rovo prices.78/1000 / 0May 2026
NOWDislocation buy — platform trading at $84 vs CEO's $104.60 insider purchase; 22% revenue growth and $4.6B FCF intact while the market re-rates SaaS.78/1004 / 0+669.0%Apr 2026
MUHold, PT $811 (+1.97%) — Micron's 100% CY2026 HBM sell-out and first 5-year Strategic Customer Agreement anchor a structural margin reset, but a $897B market cap already prices the supercycle.78/1000 / 0+4259.0%May 2026
RKLBBest-in-class space franchise at a multiple that already discounts flawless Neutron execution; asymmetric downside keeps us at HOLD.76/1000 / 0Apr 2026
CRDOCredo Technology is the pure-play AI connectivity leader — 88% AEC market share, 200%+ revenue growth, 50% operating margins, and a newly expanded $10B+ TAM via ZeroFlap Optics, ALCs, OmniConnect, and the DustPhotonics silicon photonics acquisition.75/1000 / 0Apr 2026
IRENBUY IREN at $46.05 with a $62 PT (34.6% upside) as the $9.7B Microsoft contract, 4.5GW of secured power and $3.6B sub-6% GPU financing turn a bitcoin miner into a vertically integrated AI cloud platform.75/1003 / 0+3909.0%Apr 2026
AXTIAXT owns a scarce upstream position in AI optical substrates, but valuation already reflects 2+ years of the bull case.75/1005 / 0+4014.0%Apr 2026
AMKRAMKR — BUY $90 PT, conviction 68/100. Q1 2026 EPS $0.33 vs $0.23 (+43%) confirms HDFO ramp + margin recovery; ladder-up trigger activated.75/1005 / 1-963.0%Apr 2026
CEGConstellation trades at 20x next-year earnings, a discount the market pinned to a Crane slip-to-2031 fear FERC erased on June 1 by letting the restart inherit retired Eddystone interconnection rights.74/1001 / 0Jun 2026
NFI.TONFI Group Inc.74/1000 / 0+2664.0%Apr 2026
MDB买入 MongoDB,PT $423,订单簿 +97% 直接证伪 FY27 +17% 永久减速论;5 月 28 日 Q1 FY27 业绩即是裁决。73/1004 / 0-105.0%May 2026
METAMeta is priced at 19x next-year earnings for the ad business alone, a 33% discount to Google despite growing seven points faster, even as Q1 absorbed the first $24B leg of AI depreciation at 40.6% operating margin and the May 27 subscription launch opened the first non-ad lane on the $125-145B capex72/1000 / 0May 2026
GOOGLAlphabet trades at 25.9x next-year earnings — a quarter below the mega-cap peer median — even as Google Cloud just printed $20B at +63% YoY and a $462B backlog the discount has not credited.72/1000 / 0May 2026
WDCSell post the SanDisk separation: WDC trades at 83.5x EV/NTM EBITDA vs peer median 16.5x — Q4 FY2026 print is the calendar-locked compression trigger.72/1000 / 0May 2026
NVDAHold NVIDIA, PT $223 (+6%) — the market composite-prices custom-ASIC inference loss, a hyperscaler capex pause, and a permanent multiple ceiling at 22.1x NTM EPS while the same four customers funding 61% of DC revenue also fund the $91B Q2 guide.72/1004 / 0-140.0%May 2026
XOMHold, PT $140 (-6%) — ExxonMobil's 21.4x trailing P/E creates an unhedged Brent-above-$90 bet that the 2027 futures curve at $78-84 refuses to underwrite.72/1000 / 0Jun 2026
GEHold, PT $361 (+1%) — LEAP installed-base aftermarket compounder fully priced at 47x next-year EPS; Q2/Q3 FY26 CES margin and spare-parts prints decide the call.71/1000 / 0Jun 2026
AMZNBuy Amazon, PT $304 (+12%) — Bedrock's Anthropic-Claude seller-of-record royalty stream unlocks an AWS margin lever consensus still prices as generic infrastructure compute.70/1000 / 0May 2026
CBChubb is priced at 12.0x next-year earnings, a 16% premium to a P&C peer set that earns higher ROE than it does, even as the company posts an 84.0% combined ratio and $1.84B of investment income that defend a roughly 10.34x peer-median floor underneath it.70/1000 / 0Jun 2026
FIHold, PT $65 (+2%) — Argentina-stripped organic of roughly 3% anchors Fiserv at a sub-3% grower multiple until the H2 FY2026 600bps adjusted-margin walk resolves.70/1000 / 0Jun 2026
SHOPBuy SHOP — AI-native commerce OS regime inversion; market_too_bearish on Shopify Capital credit cycle70/1000 / 0Jun 2026
CRMBuy CRM at $178 to PT $245.89 (+38.5%) on Agentforce ARR $800M +169% YoY, $50B+$25B ASR floor, and SaaSpocalypse-2.0 multiple-discount weakening — calendar-locked to May 27/28 Q1 FY27 print.70/1000 / 0-181.0%May 2026
APPAppLovin trades at 33.6x next-year earnings for an SEC-overhang outcome that Q1 2026 contradicted.69/1000 / 0May 2026
MRVLHold Marvell (MRVL), PT $202 (+1.7%) — the custom-silicon ramp the market is paying a 75x next-year EV/EBITDA premium for is the same mix shift holding non-GAAP gross margin flat at 58.9-59.7% for four straight quarters. The latest beat-and-raise sold 4.6% from a $218 intraday all-time high, the fir69/1000 / 0Jun 2026
CRCLSell, PT $114.53 (-15.5%) — Circle's RLDC margin compresses from Q1 2026's 41.4% toward the company-guided 38-40% just as the August 2026 Coinbase auto-renew locks 100%/50% economics through 2029. Q1 2026 revenue of $694M decelerated to +20% year-over-year while reserve yield fell 66bps to 3.5%.68/1000 / 0May 2026
MATRPost-transformation industrial play with 34% upside; C$1.27B rev, infrastructure tailwinds, AmerCable cross-sell catalyst — BUY C$12 PT68/1000 / 0Apr 2026
AMATApplied Materials has tripled to 46x next-year earnings on an eight-quarter AI wafer-fab visibility story, yet free cash flow fell 24% last year, leaving the multiple — not the demand — as the fragile thing the next print has to defend.67/1000 / 0Jun 2026
GLWCorning has transformed from a cyclical display-glass maker into a core AI-infrastructure beneficiary via Optical Communications, but a 250% post-SpringBoard rerating now discounts flawless execution against a hardening bear chorus.67/1004 / 0+1130.0%Apr 2026
GLXYBuy GLXY to $40 PT (+18%); Helios lease cash flow already paying while market still discounts dilution risk.67/1000 / 0Jun 2026
SMTCSell, PT $122 (-23% from $158.57) — the data center engine paying for a 76% EV/EBITDA premium is the same engine management refused to size in two consecutive calls, setting up multiple reversion when the late-August print resolves the gap. Q1 fiscal 2027 LoRa printed +14% year over year against +3…66/1000 / 0May 2026
MXLHold MaxLinear at $96 to an $88 weighted target on a cohort-internal contradiction: 13.2x NTM EV/Sales priced against the same desks own negative-EBITDA forecasts.66/1000 / 0May 2026
COINHold $173.75 — Everything Exchange durability vs cyclical crypto draw-down; USDC stablecoin priced as duration annuity but mechanically a rate-sensitive T-bill spread.66/1001 / 0Jun 2026
HDFive straight positive big-ticket comps crack the rate-sensitive frame anchoring HD's 19% peer P/E discount, but confirmed return decay holds us at half weight pending Q2 FY26 and June 2026 investor day.66/1001 / 0May 2026
MODModine has already been rerated as the AI data-center cooling pure-play; next earnings print decides whether a 36x multiple holds.66/1000 / 0Jun 2026
HOODRobinhood already books 87% of revenue outside crypto and runs eleven business lines at $100M+ annualized, yet the market still prices it like a cyclical broker at three times peer multiples - the next print is where the structural mix has to start paying for the premium.65/1000 / 0Jun 2026
LRCXHold @ $378 — bull mechanics confirmed but premium-to-ASML rests on unverified etch-overflow thesis.65/1000 / 0Jun 2026
INTUBuy Intuit to $468 (+52% upside) at a 2.1% anchor weight, range 1.6-2.6%, on a multiple that prices a whole-company moat break the segment data actively refutes.65/1000 / 0May 2026
RTXHold, PT $173 (-7%) — RTX's $271B Supercycle backlog and six-quarter CORE margin compounding justify a 1.7-turn EV/EBITDA premium, yet the FY26 cash stack caps multiple re-rating from here.65/1000 / 0Jun 2026
RDDTHold, PT $164.14 (+5.1%) — Q1 FY2026 +17% DAUq print disconfirmed the AI Overviews terminal-impairment frame, but the August 2 2026 EU AI Act Article 4 enforcement gates the unhedged international ARPU convergence lever before consensus can re-rate.65/1000 / 0May 2026
NVTHold, PT $166 — Eaton-Boyd + Schneider-Motivair turned the integrator slot into a 3-way contest the 24x multiple still treats as winner-take-most; Q2 margin/FCF print resolves it.65/1000 / 0Jun 2026
ADBEBuy Adobe, price target $379 (+73%) — Firefly credit-pack monetization layered on an 850M-user creative install base unlocks an AI-first ARR doubling that the 12.4x trailing multiple has prematurely written off. Q2 fiscal 2026 total ARR grew 12.5% year-over-year, reaccelerating from 10.9% one quarte64/1000 / 0Jun 2026
CSCOHold, PT $108 (-6.5%) — Q4 FY26 gross-margin print on August 13 2026 anchors whether the 27.8x next-twelve-month price-to-earnings (P/E) re-rating holds, or compresses toward the 5-year average of 20.6x.64/1000 / 0May 2026
KLACKLAs process-control intensity is real but the +73% ten-week run to 62x EV/EBITDA has fully priced it.64/1000 / 0Jun 2026
NETCloudflare's revenue acceleration to 34% at $2.5B scale, combined with NRR recovery to 120% and FCF inflection to $324M, triggers the playbook's acceleration combo buy signal.64/1003 / 0Apr 2026
GEVGE Vernova Inc.64/1000 / 0+3040.0%Mar 2026
AMDSell, PT $361 (-30%) — AMD's 77.7x next-year EV/EBITDA carries an 83% premium to a 42.4x peer median, which mathematically resets toward peers on any single guide miss. The Q2 FY26 print in early August 2026 is the binary gate: non-GAAP gross margin below 56% or Data Center year-over-year below 55% triggers the peer-median rerate to the $405 base case.64/1000 / 0May 2026
LMNDAV-insurance premium that drove the prior Buy is being dismantled by the partner itself; sell on the multiple compression63/1000 / 0Jun 2026
MSFTMicrosoft trades at 27x next-year earnings, the lowest multiple in the Mag-7 cohort, the same discount that prices its $190B AI capex bill as a structural margin breakage even as $37B AI ARR (up 123%) just became a printed management KPI.62/1000 / 0May 2026
DUOLDominant EdTech platform at trough valuation after 80% decline; 36% FCF margins, zero debt, $1B cash — BUY $140 PT (55% upside)62/1000 / 0+3107.0%Apr 2026
LITELumentum Holdings Inc.62/1000 / 0Jun 2026
BFHHold at $104, PT $107 (+2.45%) — consumer-credit-stress short rejected on data, but bull is three-quarters priced; asymmetric downside (bull +19.5% / bear -43%) demands starter size with explicit re-short tripwires.62/1000 / 0Jun 2026
IFX.DEHold, PT EUR 73.53 (+15.9%) — NVIDIA 800V HVDC partnership and EUR 25B backlog anchor cyclical inflection, but Yole 2024 GaN #4 at 10.3% sets up per-vendor share leakage the 22.4x LTM EV/EBITDA has not stress-tested.62/1000 / 0May 2026
PLTRHold, PT $142 (-9% from $156.54): Palantir's 49.9x NTM P/S premium converts the FY2026 $7.656B guide from option-to-beat into a math requirement after Q1 sequential growth slipped from a 19.1% peak to 16.0% QoQ.62/1005 / 0+1796.0%Apr 2026
INODInnodata trades at 10x forward revenue — a multiple meant for AI platforms — yet 56% comes from one hyperscaler on 30-to-90-day contracts and consensus FY26 EBITDA of $26M is a tenth of what the multiple implies.62/1000 / 0Jun 2026
AGIBUY, PT $49 (+22.7%) — Tier-1 reserve grade and Ontario jurisdiction premium plus Phase 3+ derisked at 1,381m create asymmetric upside vs medium-priced production growth.62/1000 / 0May 2026
AAPLAt $312.06 and 35.7x NTM P/E, AAPL trades at a 5.5x premium to peer median 30.18x while growing only 6.4% vs peer median 13.1%; entire premium is paid for a Services-margin-driven GM expansion thesis plus the iPhone 17 supercycle's confirmed multi-quarter durability.62/1000 / 0May 2026
CCJHold, PT $116.10 (+7.3%) — Cameco 230M-lb contract backlog reprices into $90/lb LT curve, but 2026 phasing trough + McArthur bridge collapse cap near-term upside.61/1000 / 0May 2026
TMO Buy TMO PT $636 (+35%) — $29.4B contracted backlog (+19.8% YoY) drives FY26-27 organic above guide; 5.4-turn EV/EBITDA discount overshoots structural mix penalty by ~3 turns of cyclical overhang. 60/1000 / 0Jun 2026
IBKRHold Interactive Brokers, PT $83 (-11% from $93) — the 37x NTM P/E now anchors a price that already pays for the volume flywheel bulls cite, leaving no cushion against a second miss. May 2026 monthly margin loans of $101B (+65% YoY) and client equity of $937B (+49% YoY) reaccelerated after the Q1 pr60/1000 / 0Jun 2026
DOCNAt 15.8x next-year sales (nearly 3x the peer median), DigitalOcean is priced as if the +50% FY27 guide is contracted demand — yet RPO covers only 14% of the $1.7B target while Q1 gross margin fell 500bps.60/1000 / 0Jun 2026
CIENSELL, 12-month PT $240 (-58.4%), conviction 60/100 — operating story is real, but a 13.3x EV/Sales NTM regime on 8.12% LTM EBITDA margin will not survive one routine print cycle.60/1000 / 0May 2026
MELIBuy MELI to $2,276 (+38%): FY2025 FCF $10.8B (+53% YoY, 12.9% mkt-cap yield) proves cash engine decoupled from compressed P&L EBIT; market underprices fintech NIMAL inflection.60/1000 / 0Jun 2026
ARMARM is the rare platform monopoly benefiting from AI data center royalty acceleration, architecture pricing power, and a transformational leap into production silicon - but 142x P/E prices in perfection.60/1004 / 0+12512.0%Apr 2026
LLYLilly trades at 28x EV/EBITDA, 2.2x the large-pharma peer median; the volume runway is fully priced and the first untested step arrives two prints from now.60/1000 / 0May 2026
CVNACarvana trades at 2.77x EV/Sales — 3.6x the auto-dealer peer median — for a 13.5% adj-EBITDA destination that just printed its first 110-basis-point margin contraction in six 40%+ quarters, with CarMax copying the playbook at a $230 lower retail gross-per-unit.60/1000 / 0Jun 2026
MCDHold — calendar-locked refranchising disclosure (Sep 23 Investor Day) + Q2 SSS print frame asymmetric 4-month window; $384 bull / $243 bear; 0.9% anchor.60/1000 / 0May 2026
AAOIHOLD, PT $192 (+1% vs $190.36) — the Q2 2026 print in early August is the calendar-locked test of whether non-GAAP gross margin steps from 29.2% toward the 35% bridge that today's peer-median forward multiple already pays for.59/1000 / 0May 2026
ICEBuy ICE: the market is pricing the consolidated company at peer-trough 14x EV/EBITDA on a 21% mortgage-tech segment, while the other 79% accelerates and a $3B buyback at 18x retires equity worth peer-median 28x.59/1000 / 0Jun 2026
INTCSell, PT $71 (-45%) — the +177% three-month rally has paid roughly $80B of incremental market cap for foundry outcomes Intel itself dates to 2028 while Q1 FY2026 external foundry revenue cleared only $174M.59/1002 / 0May 2026
LMTBuy LMT: PAC-3 seven-year framework + $193.6B backlog + FY26 H2 segment OP recovery = 34% upside to $69859/1000 / 0May 2026
JNJ市场以 20.5x NTM 市盈率把 JNJ 仍定价为待确认的防御型成长股,但同一条免疫学渠道(Tremfya +63.8% YoY)正以美元对美元节奏填回 STELARA 缺口。58/1000 / 0Jun 2026
ENREnergizer trades at 5.5x earnings on a multiple the market reserves for permanently impaired balance sheets, yet the same $140M working-capital outflow that depressed FY25 free cash flow to $63M just reversed in Q1 FY26 with a $124M print that funded a $200M January debt paydown in cash.58/1000 / 0Jun 2026
ENPHResidential solar microinverter leader in a 25D-reset penalty box; waiting for GaN/IQ9 and battery attach inflection before reaching.58/1000 / 0+11400.0%Apr 2026
TJXHold, PT $161 (-2%) — the post-2025 tariff windfall drove Q1 FY27 gross margin up 180 basis points but is being capitalized at a 10-year peak multiple. Forward P/E of 31.4x sits 34% above the off-price peer median of 23.5x and is the binding constraint on the next twelve months.57/1000 / 0Jun 2026
LYFTCalendar-locked Q2 FY2026 print in early August anchors the multiple-rerating gate from 13.3x forward P/E to 20x as the profitability turnaround prints a second time.57/1000 / 0May 2026
COSTHold COST on a regime mismatch — 47x forward P/E embeds durability that 10-13% EPS growth no longer supports.57/1000 / 0Jun 2026
CPNGCoupang's 0.80x next-year sales — a 67% discount to Asia peers — prices the 0.3% Q1 margin as the ceiling, but Product Commerce still ran 5% at the segment level and the August print is what settles the bet.57/1000 / 0Jun 2026
LULULululemon prices at 5.4x EV/EBITDA — below value-trap Gap — while running the peer's second-best EBITDA margin at 24.6%, even as management's own 250bps operating-margin guide caps the near-term re-rate.55/1000 / 0May 2026
ATS.TOATS Corporation55/1000 / 0+627.5%Apr 2026
PGRHold Progressive at $200 toward a $208 probability-weighted price target (+4 percent) on a 0.75 percent anchor weight, because the Q2 2026 combined-ratio print is the resolution event that decides whether the bull or bear leg owns the next move. The same Q1 2026 86.4 percent combined ratio that annu54/1000 / 0Jun 2026
ISRG持有,目标价402.53美元(下行2.08%)——市场已将ISRG尾盘PE 70.8倍压缩至NTM 35.9倍,把Medtronic Hugo通用外科510(k)按期获批所暗示的护城河破裂预付定金,而Q1 2026装机431台、DV5对Xi利用率高11%、达芬奇手术量+17%、经常性收入86%尚未提供任何可证伪的失单证据。7月Q2 2026业绩与Q4 2026-Q1 2027的Hugo FDA决定将在30-180天内强制释放这一定价张力。54/1000 / 0Jun 2026
ZSZscaler is a market-leading cloud security platform trading at its lowest valuation in public history following a 56% drawdown driven by broad tech rotation rather than fundamental deterioration.54/1000 / 0Apr 2026
WIXWix is priced at 1.46x next-year revenue, a multiple the market reserves for SMB software AI is about to displace, even as Q1 cohort bookings just accelerated 46% and Base44 ran zero to $150M ARR in eleven months.53/1002 / 0+739.0%May 2026
AFRMSell Affirm, PT $66 (-10%) over three quarters — the BNPL growth premium that anchors a 7.35x EV/NTM revenue multiple is narrowing faster than consensus expects, with gross margin and allowance-build signals arriving ahead of the August earnings print.52/1000 / 0Jun 2026
OTEXCost program is real but phased — margin uplift already largely in consensus; stock cheap on EV/EBITDA but capped by revenue stagnation and 3.5x net leverage52/1003 / 0Apr 2026
ONTOOnto trades at 119x next-year earnings, twice the peer median, on FY25 revenue growth of just 1.8%, and the August print is the first quarter where the HBM tool-of-record story has to start paying for that multiple in cash.50/1000 / 0Jun 2026
MSTRBitcoin treasury company trading below NAV with leveraged upside to BTC recovery.48/1003 / 0+1850.0%Apr 2026
TSLATesla stands at an inflection point where its energy storage business and nascent robotaxi operations must compensate for deteriorating core automotive economics.44/1003 / 0Apr 2026

Returns are mark-to-market since each thesis's initiation date, equal-weighted, before fees, and not adjusted for risk or benchmark. Conviction is Agentic Capital's internal 0–100 thesis score, not a recommendation. Driver accuracy counts research pillars marked confirmed vs. invalidated at review. This page is research-quality information for evaluation purposes only and is not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.